Thousands go straight from university to long-term sickness

Tens of thousands of students are going straight from university to long-term sickness, after a steep rise in recent years driven by mental health problems.
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, says that “spiralling inactivity is the greatest employment challenge for a generation” and that reversing it is central to Labour plans to boost economic growth.
There are now a record 2.8 million people off work due to long-term sickness, up 700,000 since Covid-19, with the cost of sickness benefits due to reach £64 billion by the end of the parliament, up £30 billion on before the pandemic.
A report by the NHS Confederation and the Boston Consulting Group found that reversing even part of the impact would save taxpayers £19.5 billion a year by the end of the decade through lower benefit spending and higher tax receipts. The boost to the wider economy would be even bigger, at £62.6 billion.
The report also highlights that Britain has become an international outlier, with sickness up by 27 per cent since the pandemic while it has stayed the same or fallen in the rest of Europe. In Britain one in every 15 people of working age is now off owing to long-term illness, a rate 69 per cent higher than Germany and more than twice Italy’s level.
Analysis by BCG of people’s routes into long-term sickness found that students were now one of the biggest contributors. In 2021-22, 63,392 people went straight from being economically inactive because they were studying to being inactive through long-term sickness, up from 36,866 in 2019-20. Once people flowing the other way are subtracted, students pushed up inactivity numbers by 42,300 net, up from 12,700 in 2019-20.
While the rate had fluctuated before the pandemic, the figures show a 24 per cent rise since 2014 and an average annual net increase of 5.5 per cent, with rising numbers of students flowing into long-sickness while those moving from sickness to study remain more constant.
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Raoul Ruparel, author of the report, said: “Those aged 16-24 who are long-term sick inactive with multiple conditions has grown by 18 per cent since pre-Covid, making them the fastest growing group of those out of the workforce. This is largely driven by an acceleration of mental health conditions post-Covid. It is no coincidence then that the numbers of those moving directly from being students to being economically inactive has grown rapidly — these flows have more than tripled since pre-Covid.”
He said the growing trend “paints a concerning picture. Not only is this meant to be the healthiest section of the population but those who spend a prolonged period out of work at the start of their career have been shown to have materially lower income and productivity for the rest of their lives.”
His report called for earlier mental health support and better help from universities and employers. Matthew Taylor, head of the NHS Confederation, said the health service could not solve the long-term sickness problem alone.
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“The UK faces a series of enormous health challenges as seen in the sharp rise in the number of people out of the workforce due to long-term sickness. This spike has defied European trends and requires both additional investment in the NHS alongside coordinated and sustained action across government,” Taylor said.
“Getting this right will lead to a more productive NHS, support more people to be in work and provide a major boost to the economy. Failure risks rising waiting lists and the proportion of public spending spent on the NHS crowding out other forms of investment, which will then only weigh down the economy.”
On Monday Kendall held the first meeting of a labour market advisory board as she plans a white paper on tackling economic inactivity expected after the budget. It is expected to focus on devolving powers to local mayors to join up employment, health and skills support services.
She said that dealing with the problem “will take time, but we’re going to fix the foundations of the economy and tackle economic inactivity”.