Republicans Score Triple Senate Boost With America’s Most Accurate Pollster

Republican Senate candidates are ahead in three key states, according to America’s most accurate pollster.
The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College (rated most accurate by FiveThirtyEight) between October 5 and 8, shows that Republican candidates are ahead in Montana, Texas and Florida—three states where Republicans have had narrow margins.
The GOP has the narrowest lead in Texas, according to the poll. Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is 4 points ahead of his opponent, Colin Allred, with 48 percent to his 44 percent.
Meanwhile, in Montana, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy is 8 points ahead of his opponent, incumbent Senator Jon Tester, 52 percent to his 44 percent, while Florida Republican candidate Rick Scott is 9 points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 49 percent to her 40 percent.
With Democrats fighting to maintain their narrow Senate majority, all three races could be crucial to deciding who wins control of the chamber in 2025.
Republicans must secure only two seats in November to gain a Senate majority when the new Congress convenes next year. They are generally expected to win one seat in West Virginia, where Democratic-caucusing independent Joe Manchin is retiring, which means they only need to win one more.
For Democrats to maintain control of the chamber in 2025, the party will need to win every other competitive seat this year while also winning the presidency, which would allow a Democratic vice president, Tim Walz, to break a 50-50 tie.
Amid the high stakes, Democrats have been targeting the closest Senate races.
Montana, Florida and Texas have been some of the closest Senate races this year, with polls showing differing results for who has the lead.
In Montana, an AARP poll conducted from August 25 to 26 placed Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and business owner backed by former President Donald Trump, in the lead by 6 points. A Republican-backed poll from Public Opinion Strategies, conducted between August 18 and 20, showed Sheehy ahead by 7 points.
However, some polls have favored Tester, the last remaining Democrat to hold high office in Montana, or shown the race as tied.
An RMG Research poll from August 6 to 14 gave Tester a 5-point lead, while a Public Opinion Strategies poll from June 11 to 13 showed the candidates evenly matched. A June poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates also had both candidates tied. Cook Political Report has categorized the Senate race as a toss-up.
Polls in Texas have told a similar story, with a survey conducted by ActiVote between September 5 and 30 putting Cruz only 5 points ahead. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling between September 25 and 26, put Cruz ahead by only 1 point. The poll surveyed 759 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Morning Consult between September 9 and 18 showed that for the first time, Allred was 1 point ahead of Cruz, 45 percent to his 44 percent among 2,716 likely voters. His lead was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Cruz narrowly won his last election six years ago, beating challenger Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 percent. It was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.
In Florida, no polls have given Mucarsel-Powell the lead, but some surveys have shown Scott with a very narrow lead of just 1 to 3 points, including polls conducted by Public Policy Polling and Redfield and Wilton Strategies.
Newsweek reached out to the Senate candidates for Texas, Florida and Montana for comment.
Other polls have shown Scott in the lead by as much as 7 points. Cook Political Report has categorized the Senate races in Florida as likely Republican, while Texas is categorized as lean Republican.
At least seven Democratic-held Senate seats are also up for grabs in highly competitive races this fall, including key battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. A series of New York Times/Siena College polls conducted in late September across four of those contests and Ohio showed Democrats leading, though some of the margins were tight.
A tight race is also emerging in Nebraska, where independent candidate Dan Osborn is facing Republican incumbent Deb Fischer.
Recent polls have shown Osborn overtaking Fischer, including a poll conducted by The Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group between September 27 and October 1, which showed that Osborn leading by 5 points, from 47 percent to 42 percent.
Another poll conducted by SurveyUSA between September 20 and 23 showed Osborn ahead by 1 point in the state.
With the balance of power in the Senate at stake, Osborn has repeatedly faced questions about which party he would caucus with if he makes it to the chamber. Osborn has insisted that he won’t link himself to either party.
“I would consider caucusing with whoever has control, only if my idea fails, but certainly I want to create an independent caucus, a caucus that is going to benefit everyday people,” he told ABC News.
Osborn added that there’s nothing “set in stone” about caucusing with a particular party. If he becomes a swing vote in the Senate, he said, “that’s going to give me a little swagger, right? People will have to work with me, and I won’t have any problem striking deals to get on committees. But we’ll deal with that when the time comes.”
Cook Political Report has categorized Nebraska’s Senate race as likely Republican.